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  "description": "The result also depends on TOP remaining outside Parliament.",
  "path": "/1news-poll-puts-labour-bloc-ahead-but-result-depends-on-key-assumptions/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-24T19:44:44.000Z",
  "site": "https://goodoil.news",
  "tags": [
    "Centrist",
    "June 23, 2026",
    "pic.twitter.com/I9dJYg8gDq",
    "X",
    "The NZ Herald",
    "Receive our free newsletter here",
    "@chrislynchmedia",
    "@1nzmw"
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  "textContent": "Summarised by Centrist\n\n**A new 1News-Verian poll says the current coalition would be out of power if an election were held today, but the projected result depends heavily on assumptions about Te Pāti Māori electorate seats and TOP falling just short of the 5% threshold.**\n\nLabour remains the highest polling party on 32%, despite dropping five points, while National is on 29%, down one point.\n\n> Why is the mainstream media acting like campaign managers for The Opportunities Party? I haven’t seen this level of free promotion in years.\n>\n> — Chris Lynch (@chrislynchmedia) June 23, 2026\n\nThe Greens rose to 13%, New Zealand First to 11%, ACT fell to 6%, and Te Pāti Māori remained on 2%.\n\nThe Opportunity Party recorded the surprise result, rising to 4.6%, just below the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.\n\n> Does National's internal polling reveal they are losing the Party vote?\n>\n> \"Don't judge people by what that say; but by what they do\". Here's what National are doing:\n>\n> 1. Trying to devalue their coalition partners NZ First and ACT by making snide remarks about them: \"One wants the… pic.twitter.com/I9dJYg8gDq\n>\n> — NZ Media World – by Brynn Neilson (@1nzmw) June 23, 2026\n\nOn 1News’ seat calculation, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have 64 seats, compared with 60 for National, NZ First and ACT.\n\nBut that projection assumes Te Pāti Māori wins six electorates, as it did in 2023. Critics say that assumption may be less secure after recent internal splits and changes around the party.\n\nThe result also depends on TOP remaining outside Parliament. If TOP crosses 5%, it could alter the seat distribution and complicate the path to government for both blocs.\n\nLuxon remained ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, rising to 18%, while Hipkins fell to 16%.\n\nThe poll contrasts with the latest NZ Herald-Motu Research poll of polls, which gave the current coalition a 74.3% chance of being re-elected before this 1News-Verian result was included.\n\n**Read more over at** X**and** The NZ Herald****\n\nReceive our free newsletter here",
  "title": "1News poll puts Labour bloc ahead, but result depends on key assumptions",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-25T05:08:49.567Z"
}