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  "description": "\nQuick Hits are an exclusive format from The Good Oil. Upgrade your membership to get every Quick Hit, plus deep dives, intelligence briefings and more – delivered straight to you.\n",
  "path": "/quick-hit-poll-of-polls-margin-of-victory-growing/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-12T19:30:39.000Z",
  "site": "https://goodoil.news",
  "tags": [
    "latest Motu Research Poll of Polls",
    "Subscribe now"
  ],
  "textContent": "The _Herald’_ s Audrey Young opened her wallet for the latest Motu Research Poll of Polls and announced the headline: the coalition will win and the margin is growing. She buried the bigger story. The numbers are not just confirming a coalition win. They are reshuffling who actually carries it. Christopher Luxon’s National Party is being overtaken inside its own coalition –and the new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll proves it.\n\n* * *\n\n### 📌 Key Points\n\n📊 The Herald-Motu Poll of Polls puts the coalition’s probability of a second term at **88.3%** – up from earlier readings, with the margin of victory described as “growing”\n\n📊 The Good Oil’s own internal Poll of Polls – weighted average across the latest three pollsters – has Labour at **33.89%** , National at **29.76%** , NZ First at **12.13%** , Greens at **9.33%** , ACT at **6.95%** , Te Pāti Māori at **3.06%**\n\n📊 The latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll (field 3–7 May, n=1,000, MoE ±3.1%) has National at **30.0%** – flat – while NZ First drops 1.9 to **11.7%** and ACT crashes 2.5 points to **6.5%**\n\n📊 Seat projection from TU/Curia: government bloc **62 seats** ; opposition bloc **58 seats**. Coalition still forms a government\n\n📊 Luxon reclaims preferred PM at **21.5%** – but on 1News-Verian last month he was **16%** , on RNZ-Reid he was **17.3%**. The pollster spread tells you the real ceiling\n\n* * *\n\n### This post is for subscribers only\n\nBecome a member to get access to all content\n\nSubscribe now",
  "title": "Quick Hit: Poll of Polls – The Margin of Victory Is Growing, And It’s Not Going Where the Herald Thinks",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-12T19:30:38.782Z"
}