Poll tightens, but Luxon vows to stay as National dips

Summarised by Centrist

A new Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll suggests New Zealand’s political balance remains extremely tight, with a Labour-led bloc narrowly ahead and capable of forming a government by the slimmest possible margin.

Labour has edged up slightly in the latest survey, gaining 0.3 points to 34.4 per cent, while National has fallen 2.9 points to 28.4 per cent. The shift pushes the projected left bloc to 61 seats in Parliament, just enough to govern, while the centre-right slips to 59 seats.

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐞-𝐋𝐞𝐟𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝; 𝐋𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐤𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐚𝐱 𝐥𝐨𝐰

The Centre-Left bloc could form a Government, but with the finest possible margin according to the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll. pic.twitter.com/HfA618Lfj9

— New Zealand Taxpayers' Union (@TaxpayersUnion) March 5, 2026

Luxon has rejected speculation about his leadership, saying he is “absolutely not” considering stepping down and that he still has “the full support of my team and my caucus.”

Under the projected set-up, Labour would hold 44 seats, up one from the previous poll. National drops three seats to 36. The Greens remain steady on 13 seats, as does New Zealand First, while ACT rises two seats to 10. Te Pāti Māori remains on four seats.

The Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross noted, the poll “confirms that the election race is as close as it can be,” with neither bloc commanding a decisive lead.

The results also show National continues to lead on economic management and government spending. Labour, however, holds the advantage across a broader range of issues, including health, poverty, inflation, education, safety, housing, and the environment.

Despite National traditionally campaigning as the low-tax party, respondents in this poll were more likely to trust Labour not to increase taxes.

The oddest media take was probably a Stuff 'analysis' piece that appeared to suggest National polling in the 20s was something shocking and "untenable". A bunch of outlets, including Stuff, reported National polling in the 20s multiple times last year (as far back as Jan 2025). https://t.co/8p1uw1O6Zg pic.twitter.com/9PBN4WLgYF

— Charted Daily (@Charteddaily) March 6, 2026

Among smaller parties, ACT gained modestly to 7.5 per cent, while New Zealand First slipped slightly to 9.7 per cent. The Greens rose marginally to 10.5 per cent. Te Pāti Māori recorded 3.2 per cent.

Read more over at**The Taxpayers’ Union NZ,The NZ Heraldand**The Spinoff

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