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  "path": "/2026/03/review-of-if-russia-wins-a-scenario/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-03-24T08:15:00.000Z",
  "site": "https://providencemag.com",
  "tags": [
    "Book Review",
    "Russia",
    "Russia-Ukraine War (2022)",
    "Strategy",
    "The Latest",
    "Ukraine",
    "realists being realistic"
  ],
  "textContent": "Are the so-called realists being realistic in Ukraine? Carlo Masala’s new book _If Russia Wins: A Scenario_ , first published in German in March 2025 and then in English in November 2025, supports the conclusion that they are not, while insightfully revealing the deep divisions Russia’s invasion has exposed in how Americans perceive their place in the world.\n\nFrom the earliest days of Russia’s invasion, certain sections of the American right have opposed significant U.S. support for Ukraine, even acting as apologists for Putin’s regime in the name of foreign policy realism. In some ways, this was predictable. Russia’s opposition to NATO and to the U.S.-led liberal world order aligns with realists ’ traditional distrust of supranational institutions in international relations. In other ways, however, I have found this alignment perplexing. Realists pride themselves on being _realistic_ about the ways nations interact—taking the world as it is, rather than working towards an unattainable utopia. And yet, it’s striking how none of these so-called realists seem open to the possibility that Russia winning could be the beginning of a broadening assault on NATO and the West.\n\nIn contrast, _If Russia Wins_ addresses this possibility head-on. In the introduction, Masala writes,\n\n“We are used to thinking that everything will be fine… But what if Russia wins? To understand what is at stake and which decisions could have which consequences, we need to know what could happen.”\n\nIn Masala’s scenario, Ukraine is forced to accept a “peace settlement” that cedes 20 percent of its land to Russia and adopt a “permanent neutrality clause in its Constitution, which rules out joining NATO,” all without credible deterrence or security guarantees. In other words, “the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II ends with Ukraine’s defeat.” While Russia celebrates its victory, the West breathes a sigh of relief. Increasingly powerful right- and left-wing populists criticize previous support for Ukraine as “warmongering,” and a complacent Europe and U.S. turn their attention to the Indo-Pacific.\n\nIn Russia, Putin shocks the world by ceding power to a charismatic young politician seemingly eager for reform. Behind the scenes, however, Russia is plotting to continue its assault on NATO with an incursion into Estonia modeled after Hitler’s remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936. When Russia launches a surprise attack and seizes a small Estonian town as well as the uninhabited Hans Island in the Arctic, NATO’s resolve is tested: Will it uphold Article 5 and defend the territory of member states? The answer, ultimately, is no. Russia has called NATO’s bluff, revealing its impotence and America’s unwillingness to continue defending the world order.\n\nThe most striking element of Masala’s book is its plausibility. It is far too easy to imagine a similar scenario unfolding based on current trends: peace proposals that favor Moscow, war-weariness in the U.S. and Europe, and a U.S. administration that seems increasingly disinterested in sustaining an American-led world order. Masala is quick to remind readers that the point of exploring such a scenario is to prevent it from actually occurring; nonetheless, _If Russia Wins_ solidified my conviction that the Ukraine-skeptical realists’ failure to acknowledge the likelihood of such a scenario tends towards wishful thinking—a decidedly non-realist activity.\n\nAt the same time, the book convinced me that the divide between those who advocate strong support for Ukraine and the realists who oppose it is much deeper than their willingness (or unwillingness) to seriously consider the consequences of a Russian victory. The book is meant to alarm the reader, yet whether Ukraine-skeptical realists would find it alarming is doubtful. The idea of a Russian incursion into a tiny Baltic town, the neutering of NATO, and the meaningful end of the U.S.-led world order would likely strike them as unconcerning, if not desirable.\n\nSome Ukraine-skeptical realists understand that Russia using Ukraine as a springboard to reassert influence over the former Soviet sphere would be a disaster for the U.S.; for them, this book could well be a wake-up call. For the rest, however, the failure to reckon with the consequences of a Russian victory may have a simple explanation: if the worst-case scenario doesn’t sound so bad, why dwell on it? _If Russia Wins_ supports this theory. Masala’s scenario relies heavily on his prediction that right-wing populism—and its attendant “realism”—will come to dominate European politics. Masala understands that even if Russia pushes into NATO territory, the Ukraine-skeptical realists may simply shrug.\n\nEven so, despite how convincing Masala’s premonition was to me, the truth is that Ukraine-skeptical realism runs deep, and a book like this will not suddenly convert most Ukraine-skeptics to staunch defenders of Ukraine and NATO. Masala’s calls to save the liberal world order and Ukraine will resonate mainly with those who share already share his perspective. Nonetheless, the book is not simply preaching to the choir, but rather issuing a challenge to Ukraine’s supporters. As we saw under the Biden administration, support for Ukraine has all too often consisted of inspiring words, inadequate weapons, and a vague conviction that everything will turn out alright in the end. This book is a much-needed antidote to this tendency.\n\nOn the other hand, while _If Russia Wins_ stops short of offering Ukraine-skeptics a convincing argument, it does contain the seeds of one. The book ends with a phone conversation between the Russian president and President Xi of China. Xi “feels like he’s at the apex of his power. His plan, developed from that of his predecessors, seems to be working. The goal is in sight. The might of the U.S. has been broken and Chinese domination of the world is within reach.” The Ukraine-skeptical realists may have given up on a U.S.-led world order, but the last thing they desire is Chinese hegemony. If they can be convinced that Russian victory in Ukraine will play into China’s hand, then maybe they will support a Ukraine policy with real teeth. The divides between realist and idealist, conservative and liberal will not be resolved any time soon, but with China acknowledged as the real adversary, there might be just enough common ground to keep the title of the book _If_ _Russia Wins_ and not _When China Wins_.",
  "title": "Review of “If Russia Wins: A Scenario”"
}