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  "path": "/post/208929/white-house-stop-placing-bets-prediction-markets",
  "publishedAt": "2026-04-10T14:40:40.000Z",
  "site": "https://newrepublic.com",
  "tags": [
    "Breaking News",
    "Insider Trading",
    "Prediction Markets",
    "Kalshi",
    "polymarket",
    "White House",
    "Donald Trump",
    "United States",
    "Politics",
    "Republicans",
    "Republican Party",
    "reports",
    "93 percent accuracy rate",
    "betting",
    "charged",
    "embrace of corruption",
    "problematic",
    "invest"
  ],
  "textContent": "The Trump administration is warning staffers not to bet on world events in futures markets.\n\n_The Wall Street Journal_ reports that the White House Management Office sent out a staff-wide email on March 24 telling administration employees not to engage in the practice following President Donald Trump’s announcement the previous day that he was pausing strikes against Iran.\n\nThe email was likely prompted by the rise in suspicious wagers and investments being made just before Trump announces major policy decisions. Only 15 minutes before Trump announced the pause in bombing Iran, $760 million in oil futures contracts was traded in under two minutes.\n\nThree accounts in the prediction market Polymarket correctly bet on the timing of the Iran war ceasefire earlier this week, netting over $600,000. One of those accounts, with a 93 percent accuracy rate, was able to profit by betting on when U.S. and Israeli airstrikes would occur in 2024, 2025, and 2026.\n\nThe timing of those bets raises the question of whether one of Trump’s staffers or associates is using insider information for profit. Online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow their customers to bet on everything from political events to sports, and suspicious bets have been going on for months.\n\nIn January, one trader, who had only created their account in December, made $400,000 by betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power less than five hours before it actually happened. Israel arrested and charged two people, including a military reservist, in February for allegedly using classified information to make bets on Polymarket.\n\nInsider trading in the White House is a disturbing phenomenon, made worse by Trump’s embrace of corruption as president and because it’s an even more perverse form of war profiteering. It extends further than Polymarket or Kalshi, which are problematic in their own right, and could go all the way to the presidential Cabinet, as a broker for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth allegedly tried to invest millions of dollars in defense companies just before the U.S. began bombing Iran. One wonders if Trump himself is also engaged in insider trading, or if his corrupt Department of Justice even takes the issue seriously.",
  "title": "White House Begs Staffers to Stop Placing Bets on Prediction Markets"
}