Good morning! As we wait for any news on the proposed peace deal between the US and Iran, we have updates on the Israel x Hezbollah war. Israel is expected to ramp up its offensive, but traders have their own spin on the story.

Outside of the Middle East, today we take a look at Colombia Presidential Election and Turkey, where Erdogan is making moves to tighten his grip on power.

Take a look at prediction markets to get up to speed with the world.

Main Events Of The Day

#1 Iran Peace

https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by

Traders are starting to doubt the current peace deal effort. As we await Tuesday morning news, the chances for a peace deal by the end of May are trading in the high 20s.

Delegations from respective countries are gathering in Doha in the wake of a small exchange of fire between Iran and the US. We didn't see a single positive news since Sunday. Expectations among the sharps are that we will see a flurry of positive rumors for the market open in the US.

In the meantime, no serious escalation is expected:

https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Traders updated their forecast with the market projecting only 43% chance for traffic normalization by the end of June.

There is a slight uptick visible in the recent hours as some traders position themselves for some positive news in the next few hours. However, energy traders are no longer so bullish deal with Brent oil flirting with $100 per barrel once again:

Source: Trading Economics

#3 Israel x Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting

Despite the war narrative, traders see another diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon by the end of May.

Traders seem to fade the narrative. With the peace in Iran uncertain, they might think that the escalatory rhetoric around Lebanon is a last ditch effort to inflict pain before the talks.

#4 Colombia Presidential Election

https://polymarket.com/event/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner/will-ivn-cepeda-castro-win-the-1st-round-of-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election

Abelardo de la Espriella is closing in on Ivan Cepeda Castro ahead of the first round of Colombia Presidential Election.

Abelardo is considered to be a far-right candidate while Ivan is a left-wing candidate. Even though he's silent, Trump would surely prefer Ivan to win the election. Even Congress, while short of endorsing any candidate, finds the right-wing as more cooperative.

#5 Erdogan Is Tightening His Grip On Power

https://polymarket.com/event/zgr-zel-arrested-by-june-30/zgr-zel-arrested-by-june-30

Turkey's constitutional court annulled the last opposition congress, where they elected Ozgur Ozel as their leader.

Analysts claim that the move increases Erdogan's grip on power. However, the ex-leader of the opposition is not expected to be arrested. Traders see the opposition as weak and not able to fight Erdogan.

Wrap up

That's all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.