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  "description": "Morning Brief by PROPHET x Adjacent",
  "path": "/5-12-2026-troubles-for-sir-keir/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-12T11:22:44.000Z",
  "site": "https://adj.news",
  "tags": [
    "https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",
    "Trump suggested that the ceasefire is currently on life support",
    "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by",
    "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may",
    "The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.",
    "JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have the strait opening by June 1st as their base case.",
    "https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30",
    "Times of Israel reported that the IDF soldiers had crossed the Litani River",
    "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-speak-to-in-may/will-trump-speak-to-elon-musk-in-may",
    "a rather wide delegation of business leader joining Trump in his trip to China.",
    "https://polymarket.com/event/starmer-out-in-2025/starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548",
    "his allies issued public support for him after the recent cabinet meeting."
  ],
  "textContent": "Good morning! The world is anxiously awaiting Trump's visit to China. As the preparations for the trip go on, we hear little news on the Iran war, even as Israel is pushing ahead in Lebanon. However, this surely doesn't help the peace effort.\n\nOutside of the Iran war, all eyes in politics are looking now at PM Keir Starmer as his troubles continue. While he might have won the most recent confrontations, traders are rather pessimistic we will see him as the PM for much longer.\n\nThis and more in today's Morning Brief!\n\n* * *\n\n# Main Events Of The Day\n\n## #1 Iran Peace\n\nhttps://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by\n\nThe Iran war peace chances are flat at 18% by the end of the month.\n\nTrump suggested that the ceasefire is currently on life support, hinting that a resumption of hostilities might be in the books. However, traders do not expect an escalation in the short term, especially before Trump's China visit commences:\n\nhttps://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by\n\n## #2 The Strait Of Hormuz\n\nhttps://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. With each day passing, traders see less and less hope we will see a normalization of traffic in the short-term.\n\nPolymarket traders are in a direct confrontation with the top investment banks, as both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have the strait opening by June 1st as their base case. For now, commodities traders tend to trust the banks over prediction markets with main oil benchmarks elevated, but below their recent tops:\n\nSource: Trading Economics\n\n## #3 IDF Crossed The Litani River\n\nhttps://polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30\n\nTimes of Israel reported that the IDF soldiers had crossed the Litani River in an operation aiming to destroy several Hezbollah positions.\n\nIsrael is now in an open defiance of the ceasefire agreement as tensions are high in the Middle East. That being said, traders saw the crossing as likely for almost a week now.\n\n## #4 China Visit Delegation\n\nhttps://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-speak-to-in-may/will-trump-speak-to-elon-musk-in-may\n\nThe Trump administration announced a rather wide delegation of business leader joining Trump in his trip to China.\n\nTraders didn't really expect that as the chances of Elon Musk x Trump conversation in May sat at only 17% before the announcement. Additionally, the inclusion of the business leaders suggests that business dealings will be an important part of the visit.\n\n## #5 Starmer Facing Troubles\n\nhttps://polymarket.com/event/starmer-out-in-2025/starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548\n\nKeir Starmer might have just narrowly escaped a resignation as his allies issued public support for him after the recent cabinet meeting.\n\nStarmer has had a difficult time for a while now as his party struggles to win local elections against the right-wing parties. The calls for his resignation are being floated for months now, however till now he managed to defy them.\n\nThat being said, future problems loom and he will have a hard time clinging to his job for long as traders see a 50% chance he will lose the job by the end of June.\n\n* * *\n\n# Wrap up\n\nThe global situation remains dynamic ahead of Trump visit to China.\n\nWe will continue to monitor the Iran situation as it develops.\n\nMake sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!\n\n_This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere._",
  "title": "5.12.2026 - Troubles For Sir Keir",
  "updatedAt": "2026-05-12T11:22:44.256Z"
}