Andy Burnham's Labour would have firepower to beat Reform, new poll finds

Andy Burnham could boost Labour to an eight-point surge in support and beat out Reform UK if he took charge of the party, polling data has found.

The new survey from More in Common reveals the Greater Manchester Mayor would lift Labour to 30 per cent of the vote share, putting the party ahead of Nigel Farage's party - which has topped opinion polls since autumn last year.

Mr Burnham was confirmed this week as Labour's candidate for the crucial Makerfield by-election, where he will face Reform's "plucky plumber" Robert Kenyon.

Victory for Labour here would likely trigger a summer leadership challenge against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, with the future of the party hanging in the balance.

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With 2,599 people surveyed, the data suggests a Mr Burnham-led Labour would reclaim roughly one third of supporters who have turned their back on the party since the 2024 general election.

Nearly half of those who switched to the Greens or Liberal Democrats would return under his leadership, alongside a fifth of voters who defected to Reform or the Conservatives.

The Green Party, under Zack Polanski, would see its support fall from 11 per cent to a mere seven per cent in a hypothetical contest with Mr Burnham leading Labour.

Meanwhile, the Tories would sit at 20 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats in turn on 11 per cent of voter support.

Luke Tryl, More in Common's UK director, described the contest as "one of the most high-stakes by-elections in history".

He noted: "The future trajectory of the Labour Party, and indeed British politics more broadly, may depend on what happens in the next month."

Mr Burnham's appeal appears to reach beyond his Greater Manchester base, with potential to win back the hearts of voters from across the political spectrum.

Reform already made history at the local elections earlier this month, where the party swayed supports from both Labour and the Tories - signaling a shift in traditional left wing-right wing politics.

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However, Mr Tryl cautioned the stark difference between Mr Burnham's current mayoral role, and the prospective role of spearheading Government.

Much of Mr Burnham's popularity stems from championing northern interests against Westminster - a stance that could prove difficult to maintain as an MP during an era of "anti-politics".

Four in ten respondents across the political spectrum rated Mr Burnham's performance as Greater Manchester Mayor positively, while fewer than one in ten viewed it negatively.

Views on his suitability for the top job proved more uncertain, with 31 per cent believing he would make a good prime minister, 20 per cent disagreeing, and nearly half unsure.

When asked to sum up Mr Burnham in one word, frequent choices from those surveyed included "ambitious", "good" and "hopeful".

However, some participants also used terms such as "opportunist" and "arrogant".

The Makerfield seat fell vacant after Josh Simons MP, who won with a 5,399 majority in 2024, voluntarily stepped down to make way for Mr Burnham's ascent to Westminster.

Critics believe the Manchester Mayor's agenda to launch a premiership bid could be cut short before even securing a seat, as Reform's odds appear promising given the party swept every ward in the Makerfield area during last month's local elections.

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