{
  "$type": "site.standard.document",
  "bskyPostRef": {
    "cid": "bafyreicunqgmiljy72qb4adylbywg6pifxfjkjosdkohnbvo6yyomfcey4",
    "uri": "at://did:plc:oznbnvgr7dmvddiyvr7dih52/app.bsky.feed.post/3mklgopvdeao2"
  },
  "coverImage": {
    "$type": "blob",
    "ref": {
      "$link": "bafkreihau6obxsfqfz7onnm7gxfbvb4tvawqix5rfjcmzb72665s3qyuee"
    },
    "mimeType": "image/jpeg",
    "size": 175471
  },
  "path": "/opinion/uae-pull-out-opec-matt-gibson",
  "publishedAt": "2026-04-28T19:56:47.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.gbnews.com",
  "tags": [
    "Membership",
    "Energy market shock as UAE pulls out of Opec in huge blow to global oil producers' group",
    "BP profits surge by 130% as US-Iran war raises oil prices",
    "Ed Miliband raises heat pump grants to £9,000 despite warnings they could add £138 a year to bills",
    "The GB News Editorial Charter"
  ],
  "textContent": "\n\n\nTiming is everything – and the UAE has seized its chance.\n\nIts decision to quit Opec could leave it free to produce another 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, making the most of a fuel-starved market.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nIt’s a bold move, and, analysts say, it throws the UK’s apparent paralysis over the North Sea into sharp relief.\n\nWhile the UAE gets to work on its new domestic oil strategy, work has ceased at Rosebank, an oil field, and Jackdaw, a gas field, pending legal challenges on climate grounds.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nTRENDING\n\nStories\n\nVideos\n\nYour Say\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n“It remains frustrating that while countries like the UAE are taking advantage of the oil crisis to grow their economy, the UK Government is still dithering over whether to approve two fields,” says Andy Mayer, energy analyst at the Institute of Economic Affairs.\n\nThe middle of an energy crisis might seem a strange time for the UAE to leave Opec, after nearly 60 years of membership.\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, critical infrastructure around the Gulf is in ruins and President Trump’s repeated threats to bomb Iran’s power networks hang heavy over the region.\n\nBut it is perhaps because of this chaos that it has chosen to jump.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nIt says its decision “is based on our national interest and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market’s pressing needs”.\n\nIt knows that the market needs oil. Before the announcement, the price had already risen above $110 a barrel, the highest in three weeks.\n\nIt knows it wants to produce 5 million barrels of oil a day by next year - some 1.5 million above its Opec allowance.\n\nJorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis for energy research group Rystad, said: “The timing tells you something about where the oil market is going.\n\n“With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table.”\n\n### LATEST DEVELOPMENTS\n\n\n\n\n  * Energy market shock as UAE pulls out of Opec in huge blow to global oil producers' group\n  * BP profits surge by 130% as US-Iran war raises oil prices\n  * Ed Miliband raises heat pump grants to £9,000 despite warnings they could add £138 a year to bills\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nDespite the promise of such a production glut, the impact is not likely to be felt immediately, experts say, because the war has frozen supply chains.\n\nUAE’s energy minister, Suhail al-Mazrouei, hinted this was the point.\n\nHe explained: “The timing in our view is right because it has a minimum impact on all of the producers.”\n\nMichael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone brokerage, said the announcement was still “undoubtedly a pivotal event for the global energy market”.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nOpec controls up to 40 per cent of the world’s oil and its members sit on 80 per cent of the proven reserves.\n\nIt has used its power to influence world events, most memorably the oil shock that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur war.\n\nTraditionally, it has kept a united front. In 2016, it expanded to create an OPEC + group, with Russia taking a seat at the table. But cracks had begun to appear.\n\nQatar left in 2019, ostensibly to focus on gas, its main market, but also because it wanted autonomy from its Gulf neighbours.\n\nThe UAE had previously hinted at leaving, complaining its lower-cost barrels were being held back by quotas.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nIn addition, it has a longstanding disagreement with Saudi Arabia over Yemen, which some analysts say has become a proxy war between the countries.\n\nUAE-backed forces have clashed with those supported by Riyadh.\n\n“Growing tensions between the two – including over Yemen and the UAE’s expanding production ambitions – are likely a more important driver of this decision than recent Gulf instability alone,” says Mr Mayer.\n\nEven if not completely unexpected, the announcement will still sting the remaining members.\n\nThe UAE has been part of Opec since 1967 and is the fourth largest producer within the group. Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, suggested the loss of the UAE was \"the beginning of the end of Opec\".\n\n“With the UAE leaving, Opec loses about 15% of its capacity and one of its most compliant members,” he explained.\n\nThe news is also likely to please President Trump, who has previously accused OPEC of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices.\n\nAnd Mr Mayer predicted that, even if there might be “dithering” on the North Sea front, the outcome could ultimately be beneficial for the UK.\n\n“For Britain, the likely implication is positive: greater competition among producers should, over time, put downward pressure on prices.\n\n“As a net energy importer, the UK benefits when exporters compete to sell oil and gas rather than coordinate to restrict supply.\n\n“If this marks the start of a broader weakening of OPEC, many consumers would see that as a welcome development.”\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n**Our Standards: The GB News Editorial Charter**",
  "title": "The UAE's decision is the beginning of the end of Opec - Matt Gibson"
}