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  "path": "/money/uk-economy-gdp-growth-february-2026",
  "publishedAt": "2026-04-16T06:13:21.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.gbnews.com",
  "tags": [
    "The GB News Editorial Charter"
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  "textContent": "\n\n\nThe UK economy delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound in February, but economists warn the recovery may already be running out of steam.\n\nOfficial figures show gross domestic product rose by 0.5 per cent during the month, up from a revised 0.1 per cent increase in January.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nThis followed a surprise contraction in January and comes as the Government continues to prioritise economic expansion, though gains remain modest and may prove short-lived.\n\nOn the surface, it signals renewed momentum however experts say in reality, the picture is far more fragile.\n\nEmeritus Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser at MHA, said: \"The UK economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February, improving on the now-revised 0.1 per cent expansion recorded in January.\n\n\"Beating expectations, this marked the strongest month-on-month growth since December 2024. That appears to be progress — but the rules of the game have shifted dramatically since.\"\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nThat shift is being driven by mounting global pressures. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has darkened the outlook, with the IMF sharply downgrading its expectations for UK growth in 2026 to just 0.8 per cent.\n\nMr Nellis said: \"The continued crisis in the Middle East has led the IMF to scale back UK growth expectations for 2026 sharply, with output now projected to expand by just 0.8 per cent this year.\"\n\nFor a country heavily reliant on imported energy, the impact is immediate. Higher global prices are feeding directly into household bills and business costs, weighing on both spending and investment.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nTRENDING\n\nStories\n\nVideos\n\nYour Say\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n\"As a net energy importer, the UK feels global price spikes quickly and acutely. That feeds directly into household bills and business overheads, acting as a drag on spending and investment,\" he said.\n\nThe consequences extend beyond households and businesses and into the heart of the public finances. Slower growth typically means less tax revenue at a time when government spending pressures are already elevated.\n\n\"Slower growth means weaker tax receipts, while spending demands — from public services to debt interest — remain high. That leaves little room for policy flexibility,\" Mr Nellis warned.\n\nWith public services under strain, debt interest still high and long-term pressures from healthcare and pensions continuing to build, the Government faces increasingly difficult choices. Calls to raise defence spending only add to the squeeze.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n\"The Government is left with an uncomfortable trade-off: increase spending to protect households struggling with increased energy costs or maintain fiscal discipline,\" he said.\n\n\"They could do both, leaving them with more unpopular options: raising taxes or cutting spending elsewhere.\"\n\nThere is some hope that conditions could improve if energy prices stabilise and global tensions ease. But for now, the UK finds itself in a familiar bind.\n\n\"For now, the UK faces a familiar problem: low growth, persistent inflation, and limited policy room,\" Mr Nellis added.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\nKevin Brown, savings expert at Scottish Friendly, has commented on today's GDP figures from the ONS.\n\nHe said: \"While any economic growth is welcome, February’s positive GDP reading is likely to prove short-lived unless there is a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.\n\n\"The fallout has already hit the UK economy, with business confidence slumping and households contending with soaring mortgage rates. Add to the mix that the UK is a net energy importer, and therefore heavily exposed to price changes in global energy markets, and you have a toxic combination for a government desperate to drive up growth and living standards.\n\n\"The immediate prospects for the UK economy ultimately hang on what happens next. If tensions escalate again, energy prices and borrowing costs will likely soar, increasing the prospect of a recession.\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n\"But even if a compromise is reached soon, it is still too early to say whether there has been any lasting economic scarring.\n\n\"The message to households is not to panic, but to focus on boosting financial resilience. That means cutting back where possible, building a financial buffer where feasible, and seeking out the best returns on savings to ensure they are working as hard as they can be.\"\n\n\n\n\n_This is a breaking story, more to follow .._\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n###\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n**Our Standards: The GB News Editorial Charter**",
  "title": "UK economy grows by a surprise 0.5 per cent before Iran war"
}