ADAPTIVE SYSTEM MONITORING USING INCREMENTAL REGRESSION MODEL DEVELOPMENT

Systems and methods for monitoring an operational system. A data set with output power values and associated environmental data values for an electrical generation system are accumulated. Statistical relationships are determined for output power values and environmental data values. Outlying data is determined based on the statistical relationships and are removed from the data set to create selected data. A regression model is developed from the selected data to map predicted output power values to values of environmental data. Data with present output power values and present associated environmental data for the electrical generation system are later received. Predicted output power values are predicted by the regression model for the present associated environmental data. An output power discrepancy is identified by comparing the predicted output power to the present output power. A notification of an anomaly is provided based on identification of the output power discrepancy.