ESTIMATING TRIP DURATION BASED ON VEHICLE REROUTE PROBABILITIES

The subject disclosure relates to ways to improve route duration calculations e.g., estimated time of arrival (ETA) approximations, by taking consideration of reroute probabilities along a given vehicle path. In some aspects, the disclosed technology encompasses a process including steps for identifying a route between a first destination to a second destination, determining a reroute likelihood associated with at least one AV maneuver along the route, and calculating an estimated time of arrival (ETA) based on the reroute likelihood associated with at least one AV maneuver. Systems and machine-readable media are also provided.