DISTURBANCE ESTIMATING APPARATUS, METHOD, AND COMPUTER PROGRAM

A disturbance estimation apparatus including a navigation data receiver, a thrust data receiver, and processing circuitry is provided. The navigation data receiver acquires navigation data including an actual position and time of the ship on a water surface. The thrust data receiver receives thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship. The processing circuitry estimates a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future using a first state estimation model based on the navigation data and the thrust data and determines disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the first state estimation model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time.