UNSUPERVISED SOLAR ENERGY DISAGGREGATION SYSTEM AND METHOD

A computer-implemented method for solar energy disaggregation at a node of a distribution system includes obtaining first data including samples of averaged net power measured by a meter installed at the node and second data including samples of solar irradiation local to the node averaged over intervals temporally correlated with the first data. A physics-based model of the node is trained using the first and second data, to optimize a set of model parameters. The physics-based model is defined such that an average net power includes a composite of an average solar generation and an average power consumption at the node and the average solar generation is modeled as a function of an average solar irradiation. An aggregate solar generation at the node is estimated/predicted from actual irradiation data/irradiation forecast data local to the node using a model parameter optimized by the training.