Prediction Variance Estimation

Observed driveline mean and variance data are used for determining the variance of a trajectory of tracked objects for use by a host vehicle. A map of a portion of a vehicle transportation network are determined, wherein the map is comprised of observed driveline mean and variance data for one or more map points. At least one trajectory of a tracked object is predicted, wherein a trajectory includes a series of location each corresponding to a respective predicted position of the tracked object at a future time. A map-based variance is generated for the location of the trajectory using a smoothed curvature of the trajectory within the map. A control system of the vehicle operates the vehicle using the map-based variance as input.