Pakistan's mango exports shrink as Middle East war impacts linger

Beneath the scorching sun in Pakistan's southern mango belt, laborers pick fruit at speed this June, but far less of it is bound for export than usual.

Pakistan's agriculture sector is caught in the crosshairs of the Middle East crisis its government has helped mediate.

Why are Pakistan's mango exports shrinking this year?

Mango traders expect export sales to fall at least 30 percent this year due to dampened demand in key markets, including the Gulf, and soaring shipping costs.

An initial deal between the warring sides announced by Pakistan this week came too late for this mango season, which began in June in southern Sindh province.

How much have Pakistan's mango exports fallen?

Pakistan grows over two dozen mango varieties that normally earn around $110 million in international sales a year, making it the world's fourth-largest exporter. Total mango exports were expected to shrink by around 30,000 tons since last season to 80,000 tons this year, according to Waheed Ahmed, Chief Patron of the All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporter Association.

"Almost 80 percent of mango export is to the Gulf region, Iran and Afghanistan," Ahmed said, noting conflict had gripped all of those countries in recent months. "The border to Afghanistan is closed, there is war in Iran, there is war in the entire Middle East."

Why have shipping costs for Pakistani mangoes increased?

Conflict with neighboring Afghanistan has stalled trade, with hundreds of trucks laden with goods stuck at closed border crossings for months. Competing blockades around the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime oil trade route, pushed up energy prices and sent shipping costs soaring.

Ahmed estimated that shipping a container of 25 tons of mangoes cost around $1,400 last year. "The same freight has increased to $6,000 to $7,000 this year," he said. Though he welcomed a preliminary agreement to halt fighting between the United States and Iran this week, he said the outlook remains shaky and came too late for this year's roughly three month mango season.

How is the mango export decline affecting farmers?

In Tando Allahyar, Mohammad Shakeel manages orchards that grow the golden-yellow Sindhri variety, named after the province where it flourishes. He feared his business would fall short of generating the income needed to cover the upfront cost of orchard leases, noting some contractors had abandoned their agreements entirely.

"So many losses have been incurred, the contractors have even left their advance money," Shakeel said.

Are cheaper mangoes helping local buyers in Pakistan?

Any hopes that a glut of mangoes in local markets could offset lost export earnings were dashed by households struggling with soaring prices for other goods, driven up during the Middle East war. In a bustling outdoor market in Karachi, customer Muhammad Ashad eyed mangoes now priced around 200 Pakistani rupees ($0.72) per kilogram, half last year's price.

"Mangoes are very cheap this time compared to the last few years, because our export has stopped," he said. "I am seeing everywhere that there are very good mangoes, but people are still not able to buy them."

Pakistan's inflation rate leapt to 10 percent in the three months after the conflict began, from 5.5 percent in the July to February period, according to a government survey. Shakeel confirmed the hit to local sales. "In the local market the price is low. But not everyone can afford to buy mangoes. Look at the state of the country: expenses are rising, income is low. Should they buy their bread first or our mangoes?"