US-Iran deal a 'catastrophe' for Israel, analysts warn

Israeli analysts have called the U.S.-Iran agreement to end the Middle East war a major strategic setback for Israel, warning it signals the country's waning influence in Washington. The deal, announced on Monday, remains incomplete and is expected to be finalized within 60 days, but its preliminary framework has already alarmed Israeli security experts.

Why do analysts say the U.S.-Iran deal is a catastrophe for Israel?

The deal is seen as a catastrophe because it locks in Iranian strategic gains while leaving Israel's core security concerns unaddressed. The nuclear question, which Israel considers an existential threat, has been deferred to a future round of negotiations. Former intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz described it as a "political and security catastrophe for the State of Israel."

What happens to Iran's nuclear program under the deal?

The nuclear issue remains unresolved under the current framework. Sima Shine, an analyst with Israel's Institute for National Security Studies and a former intelligence officer, said the issues most important to Israel have been left for "some future that we don't know." U.S. officials have said the deal will lead to the destruction of Iran's enriched uranium, but details are still being worked out.

The U.S. and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran on 28 February. Netanyahu had hoped to topple the Islamic Republic and dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, which he has long described as existential threats to Israel.

Beyond the nuclear question, Citrinowicz argued that the outcome makes it unlikely any future U.S. president would risk renewed military action against Iran. This, analysts say, allows Tehran to emerge from more than three months of conflict in a stronger position. "At the end of the day, Iran is becoming stronger, and Israel has no ability to influence the U.S. president's decisions," he said.

How has Trump's handling of the deal affected Netanyahu?

Trump publicly criticized Netanyahu for launching attacks on Lebanon that nearly derailed the agreement just hours before it was announced. "He's a very difficult guy," Trump said, adding that Netanyahu "should be very thankful" given the threat a nuclear-armed Iran would pose to Israel.

Netanyahu has not publicly responded to the deal. His coalition ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, has already dismissed it, saying Israel is "not bound" by the agreement.

The deal is also a personal blow to Netanyahu, who once expected to enter October elections as the leader who defeated Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Citrinowicz, referring to Netanyahu's long history of antagonism with Tehran, said: "'Mr Iran' is stuck with a deal that covers almost none of the issues that are important to Israel."

Is Israel losing influence in Washington over the Iran deal?

Analysts say Israel's absence from the negotiations was expected, but the extent of its exclusion was not. Michael Horowitz, an independent security analyst and expert on U.S.-Israeli relations, said Israel had historically shaped U.S.-Iran talks indirectly through its influence in Washington. "What's surprising, and hints at Israel's fading influence in Washington, is that Trump seems to simply have dashed Israel's concerns," he said. "Not only did Trump ignore Israel, he effectively decided for Israel and without consulting or even warning it."

Michael Milshtein, an expert on Israeli military affairs, said the agreement leaves Israel weaker than before the war on every front. He argued that Israel's only remaining option is to seek a say on the details of the deal, particularly around the nuclear program. "Netanyahu brought us to a point of very weak leverage," Milshtein said.

He warned that Israel may soon be forced to accept agreements not only with Iran, but also with Lebanon and Gaza, two other theatres where Israeli forces remain active.