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  "path": "/partner/temperatures-record-levels-2026-2030",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-28T05:11:34.000Z",
  "site": "https://nukta.com",
  "tags": [
    "climate"
  ],
  "textContent": "\n\n\n\nGlobal average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels through 2030, the United Nations warned Thursday.\n\nThe World Meteorological Organization said all 11 of the hottest individual years ever recorded occurred from 2015 onwards, and the trend is set to continue, with a new hottest-ever year \"likely\" before 2031.\n\n### How high will global temperatures be between 2026 and 2030?\n\nAnnual global mean temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, the WMO said.\n\nThere is an 86% chance that at least one year in that period will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. A 75% chance exists that the full five-year mean will exceed the 1.5C threshold.\n\nThe WMO outlook comes as western Europe swelters under a heat dome of warm air, breaking temperature records for May in Britain and France. The agency said global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years.\n\n### Why could 2027 become the next record-breaking year?\n\nAn El Nino is predicted for the end of 2026, which raises the probability that 2027 will set a new temperature record, according to Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO's Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.\n\nThe last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and pushed 2024 to an all-time high of around 1.55C above the pre-industrial average.\n\nEl Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, driving worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.\n\n### What does this mean for the 1.5C Paris climate target?\n\nThe 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, with a preferred limit of 1.5C. The WMO said there is a 91% chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the pre-industrial baseline for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.\n\nThe 1.5C and 2C limits in the Paris accords refer to sustained long-term warming, typically measured over 20 years, so temporary breaches do not necessarily mean the long-term goal is out of reach.\n\nIt remains exceptionally unlikely, less than 1%, that any single year will exceed 2C above the pre-industrial baseline in the next five years.\n\n### What are the predicted regional impacts through 2030?\n\nArctic temperatures over the next five northern hemisphere winters are predicted to run 2.8C above the 1991-2020 average, more than triple the global temperature anomaly for the same period.\n\nThe report also forecasts above-normal rainfall across the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia from 2026 to 2030, alongside drier-than-average conditions over the Amazon.\n\nThe report was produced by Britain's Met Office and the WMO's lead centre for annual to decadal climate prediction, drawing on forecasts from 13 separate institutes.\n\nLast year ranked among the three warmest years on record, with the globally averaged near-surface temperature estimated at more than 1.43C above the 1850-1900 baseline.",
  "title": "Temperatures likely to remain at record levels in 2026-2030, UN warns"
}