India seeks trade, energy stability on Modi's UAE-Europe tour

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began a five-nation tour in the United Arab Emirates on Friday before heading to Europe, with energy security and trade topping the agenda.

Disruptions to Gulf shipping routes and the Strait of Hormuz, caused by the Iran war, continue to drive oil and gas price volatility.

The six-day trip covers the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy, and reflects India's drive to diversify its strategic and economic partnerships.

What does Modi hope to achieve on this five-nation tour?

Modi is seeking to lock in stable energy supplies, deepen trade ties following January's India-EU free trade agreement, and position India as a trusted manufacturing and technology partner.

The tour spans the Gulf and Northern Europe, addressing both immediate energy vulnerabilities and longer-term economic ambitions. New Delhi's foreign ministry said the visit will "deepen India's partnership with Europe, particularly trade and investment ties."

Why is the UAE the first stop on Modi's tour?

The UAE is home to a 4.5 million-strong Indian diaspora and remains a critical node in India's energy supply chain. The Gulf region is India's primary source of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas imports and New Delhi said discussions will focus on strengthening energy security.

Analysts expect agreements on LPG supplies and strategic petroleum reserves to be the likely outcomes.

India sources roughly half its crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway repeatedly blocked since the Iran war began. Former Indian ambassador K.C. Singh told AFP that the conflict has fundamentally shifted Gulf geopolitics, with the UAE now openly aligning with the U.S. and Israel, and Saudi Arabia drawing closer to Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey. Singh said a "new international environment now prevails" across the region.

Former ambassador Anil Wadhwa said agreements on LPG and reserves would give India "greater insulation from sudden price spikes and shipping disruptions." He added that India should move beyond a conventional buyer-seller relationship toward a "broader strategic energy security partnership." The visit is also aimed at shoring up India's broader position in the Gulf amid that shifting regional alignment.

How does the India-EU free trade agreement shape Modi's European leg?

Modi sealed the India-EU free trade agreement in January, describing it as the "mother of all deals." The EU has long viewed India, the world's most populous nation, as a key market, and the FTA has added momentum to what New Delhi sees as a strategic economic pivot toward Europe. Wadhwa said India stands to benefit from global supply-chain diversification away from China, accelerated by the new agreement.

Modi arrives in the Netherlands later Friday for his second visit since 2017. Discussions are expected to cover bilateral trade, currently worth $27.8 billion annually, alongside defense, semiconductors, water management, agriculture and health. He then travels to Sweden, where he will address a European business leaders forum alongside EU chief Ursula von der Leyen.

What is the significance of Modi's first visit to Norway?

Modi travels to Norway on Monday for an India-Nordic Summit, his first visit to the country and the first by an Indian prime minister in 43 years. Analysts said the stop reflects growing Indian engagement with Northern Europe at a moment of global realignment. Wadhwa described the timing as strategic, positioning India as "a trusted economic, technological and clean energy partner in a rapidly changing global order."

Indian lawmaker Shashi Tharoor, writing in the Indian Express, framed the Nordic visit as part of a shared interest in defending global stability. "At a time when the turbulence of the Trumpian era has unsettled global norms, India and the Nordic countries share a common interest in defending world order," Tharoor wrote. India also operates an Arctic research base on Norway's Svalbard island and is monitoring what melting sea ice means for its shipping routes.

Tharoor said India's interest in the Arctic extends beyond geopolitics. Melting polar ice carries direct consequences for the Indian monsoon and food security, he argued. The opening of new Arctic sea routes driven by climate change could also reduce India's dependence on contested Gulf waterways.

What will Modi discuss in Italy to close the tour?

The final stop is Italy on May 19, where Modi will meet Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

The two leaders share a well-documented personal rapport. The meeting is expected to build on the momentum of the India-EU FTA and further cement bilateral ties within the broader European partnership Modi is cultivating on the tour.