India state elections 2026: Modi faces key test as vote count gets underway

Vote counting began on Monday in five Indian state and territory elections, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party hoping to make significant gains.

The contest in West Bengal, a state of 100 million people, is drawing the most national attention. BJP wins would strengthen Modi's position as he navigates high unemployment and a pending US trade deal.

What is at stake in India's state elections in 2026?

Five states and territories held elections in April and May, and the results will test the BJP's reach beyond its national parliamentary stronghold. West Bengal is the centrepiece, where the BJP is attempting to unseat a long-entrenched opposition government.

A strong showing across the five contests would give Modi greater political leverage heading into a difficult period for his government.

What are the exit polls saying about West Bengal?

Exit polls last week gave the BJP a slight edge over Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's All India Trinamool Congress, though exit polls have an uneven track record in India.

Banerjee, speaking ahead of the count, was defiant: "The BJP is not coming, take my word for it." West Bengal's BJP chief Samik Bhattacharya was equally confident, telling AFP: "People of the state want change. The ruling Trinamool Congress will be defeated."

The TMC has governed West Bengal since 2011, and Banerjee remains a formidable political force in the state. The BJP waged an aggressive campaign to dislodge her, framing the contest as a vote for change. Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty told AFP in Kolkata: "The entire country has its eyes on this state's election results. The contest can tilt the balance of power."

Why was the West Bengal campaign so contentious?

The campaign was marked by protests over the removal of millions of names from voter rolls. Authorities described the purge as the removal of ineligible voters, but critics argued it disproportionately targeted marginalized and minority communities.

Past elections in the state have also resulted in violence, adding to the high-stakes atmosphere surrounding Monday's count.

What is expected in the other four states and territories?

In Tamil Nadu, a key industrial hub of more than 80 million people, the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam under Chief Minister MK Stalin is widely expected to win re-election. In Assam, a state of more than 31 million in eastern India, the BJP is broadly expected to retain control.

The BJP also forms part of the ruling coalition in the small coastal territory of Puducherry.

Kerala presents the tightest race outside West Bengal. Exit polls suggest the Congress party-led alliance is tipped to oust the Communist party in the southern state of approximately 36 million people.

A Congress win there would add another layer of complexity to the national political picture as results come in throughout the day.