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  "path": "/pakistan-inflation-expectation-feb-2026",
  "publishedAt": "2026-03-01T05:00:03.000Z",
  "site": "https://nukta.com",
  "textContent": "\n\n\n\nPakistan’s headline inflation is expected to climb to 7.2% year-on-year in February, marking the highest reading since July 2024, mainly due to a low base effect and seasonal price pressures during Ramadan, according to a report by Taurus Securities Limited.\n\nThe brokerage forecast a 0.5% month-on-month increase in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) for February. By comparison, inflation stood at just 1.52% year-on-year in February 2025.\n\nTaurus said fiscal year 2026 to-date inflation is expected to average around 5.5% year-on-year, while its full-year base-case forecast stands at approximately 6.5%.\n\n#### Food and utilities drive monthly increase\n\nThe report noted that perishable food items, which account for about 5% of the NCPI basket, are expected to post a sharp 10% month-on-month increase, driven by higher prices of vegetables and fruits during Ramadan.\n\nIn contrast, the non-perishable food segment, which has a 30% weight in the index, is likely to record a 1% month-on-month decline.\n\nThe utilities index, carrying a 24% weight, is projected to rise about 1% month-on-month due to higher household electricity charges. Meanwhile, the transport index, with a 6% weight, is expected to increase 1.4% month-on-month following a 2% rise in petrol prices and a 7% increase in diesel prices notified by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA).\n\nCore inflation is expected to post only muted gains, as seasonal demand pressures ease, the brokerage said.\n\n#### Low base effect to persist\n\nLooking ahead, Taurus Securities said the low-base effect is likely to keep inflation readings elevated through June 2026.\n\nIt warned that geopolitical volatility — particularly in global crude oil prices — adjustments in utility tariffs and supply-side pressures in food markets could keep inflation on the higher side, reducing the likelihood of a significant interest rate cut before the end of the current fiscal year.\n\nThe next monetary policy decision is scheduled for March 9 when the State Bank of Pakistan is set to review interest rates.\n\nIn its latest statement, the central bank said headline inflation eased to 5.6% year-on-year in December from 6.1% in November, reflecting moderation in food prices despite higher wheat-related costs. Energy inflation rose due to the fading impact of earlier electricity tariff reductions.\n\nThe central bank noted that core inflation has remained around 7.4% in the first half of FY26, though inflation expectations among consumers and businesses have continued to ease.\n\nOn balance, the State Bank projects inflation to remain within its 5% to 7% target range in FY26 and FY27, although it may temporarily exceed the upper bound in the coming months due to commodity price volatility, possible energy tariff adjustments and stronger-than-expected domestic demand.",
  "title": "Inflation seen rising to 7.2% in Feb on Ramadan, base effect"
}