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  "description": "Analysis: Key cocoa suppliers tell CocoaRadar they are preparing for heightened risks from drought, excessive rainfall and disease pressure as market prepares to weather the storm",
  "path": "/citi-raises-cocoa-price-outlook-as-super-el-nino-threat-puts-latin-american-producers-on-alert/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-23T13:54:55.000Z",
  "site": "https://cocoaradar.com",
  "tags": [
    "Subscribe\n        →",
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  ],
  "textContent": "From our desk to yours. DailyDaily.\n\n##  Join our growing community of members and receive a free version of our daily newsletter on what really matters in cocoa.\n\nNo spam. Unsubscribe anytime.\n\n\n        Subscribe\n        →\n\n\nIndependent research from Citigroup has warned cocoa prices could climb to $5,000 a tonne over the next three months and reach $6,000 within a year as the return of El Niño raises fresh concerns over global supplies.\n\nIn its third-quarter commodities outlook, Citi said the weather pattern could have an outsized effect on a market that remains vulnerable following the historic supply crisis of 2024.\n\n“In the fragile market that we are currently projecting, a weather cataclysm could have an amplified impact on prices,” the bank said.\n\nAdvertisement\n\n\n\n\n\nNew York cocoa futures settled at $4,237 per tonne last week. Citi forecasts a global cocoa deficit of 56,000 tonnes in the 2026-27 season, compared with a modest surplus of 111,000 tonnes in 2025-26, while warning that weak pod-setting in West Africa’s main crop could further tighten supplies.\n\nThe bank noted that the last moderate El Niño episode in 2023-24 brought strong Harmattan winds to West Africa, damaging older trees, while the previous strong El Niño in 2015-16 contributed to a sharp decline in Ecuadorian production.\n\nThe market warning comes as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 63% probability that the current El Niño will intensify into a very strong event during the northern hemisphere winter of 2026-27.\n\n### This post is for subscribers only\n\nBecome a member to get access to all content\n\nSubscribe now",
  "title": "Citi Raises Cocoa Price Outlook As ‘Super El Niño’ Threat Puts Latin American Producers On Alert",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-23T13:54:57.726Z"
}