The Chance of Blackouts
Watts Up With That? [Unofficial]
April 24, 2026
The looming problems with reliability are not just a matter of acquiring new resources too slowly, as the NERC report implies, but also a more daunting problem with procuring new resources that are difficult to quantify and expensive to make reliable. In my mind, I see lots of wishful thinking. A likelihood of blackouts well above 0.027%.
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