El Niño chances rise as La Niña fades, WMO says neutral phase to persist until mid-2026

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on March 3, 2026, that the recent weak La Niña is fading, with ENSO-neutral conditions expected to prevail until at least July 2026. Forecast models show about a 40% chance of El Niño emerging by mid-year, although confidence remains limited because of the boreal-spring predictability barrier. Source