Iran war: scenarios, conflict pathways and market implications

The following analysis draws on source inquiries and ongoing research conducted by our team across the region, and forms part of our broader monitoring of the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict and its implications for global markets.

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Scenario outlook

Base case

Chronic instability

40%

• Oil $80–120; persistent premium
• Defense & maritime outperform
• CB rate cuts delayed
• GCC at discount; no capital flight

Worst case

Stagflation shock

35%

• Oil $110–180; supply shock
• Gulf energy offline
• Credit spreads widen sharply
• GCC SWF forced deleveraging

Best case

Negotiated deal

25%

• Oil falls to $60–90
• Risk-on rally; rate cuts repriced
• GCC recovery slow to 2027
• Qatari gas contracts repriced

Oil price trajectory by scenario

Best (25%) Base (40%) Worst (35%) Range band

Midpoint lines show central trajectory within each scenario range. Shaded bands show full price range per the report. Source: GIG Special Brief, 26 March 2026.

Executive Summary

• Markets must now price instability continuously, not periodically. The Iran conflict has shifted from an episodic risk to a structural baseline.
• The report examines three distinct pathways:
  • Base case (40%): chronic instability without systemic breakdown
  • Worst case (35%): uncontrolled escalation and stagflationary global shock
  • Best case (25%): partial political reset and negotiated de-escalation

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