The limits of U.S. energy independence and the upstream risks of escalation in Iran

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The United States’ focus on “energy dominance” has now become the bedrock of its foreign policy.

Although net energy self-sufficiency predates the current administration—rooted in the shale boom of the 2000s and years of supportive investor sentiment and policy—the current White House has seized on it as strategic leverage.

The rollback of Biden-era diversification efforts and a retreat from climate commitments have only reinforced this hydrocarbons-first approach.

Energy Advantage as Strategic Currency

What distinguishes the current administration is not energy abundance itself but the way it has been weaponised.

With roughly 20% of global oil supply and 25% of gas, U.S. net independence from imports offers some insulation from external shocks and the freedom to rethink longstanding relationships.

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