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Riga Says Probability of Russian Attack on Baltic States ‘Very Low’

Window on Eurasia -- New Series [Unofficial] July 2, 2026
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Paul Goble Staunton, June 29 – At a time when many Western analysts are suggesting that Putin may launch an attack on NATO by invading the Baltic countries, Latvia’s Bureau for the Protection of the Constitution says that the likelihood of a large-scale Russian attack on the Baltic countries is “extremely low.” What is likely, the Bureau says, is continued and even expanded Russian hybrid attacks and provocations against the three Baltic countries to put pressure on NATO and the West with regard to Putin’s war in Ukraine and other issues (leta.lv/rus/home/important/B6B7347C-0E97-4E70-BCE8-43630A82BA22/). This announcement thus is not only part of an effort to calm a population that has been bombarded with suggestions that a Russian attack is imminent but also to suggest that Russia’s hybrid war against the Balts will continue but is less about them than about other matters of concern to the major powers.

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