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  "path": "/sports/2026/06/07/of-kane-kylian-and-kaabi-handicapping-the-world-cup",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-07T11:30:00.000Z",
  "site": "https://chicago.suntimes.com",
  "textContent": "<p>LAS VEGAS — As though England didn’t have enough pressure, building by the decades and punctuated by penalty-kick futility, since claiming its lone World Cup on its own turf in 1966.</p><p>A data engineer compiled information, from kickoff times to travel distance, temperature, humidity, altitude, etc., to gauge each team’s group-stage ‘‘burden rating,’’ and only one side has it tougher than the Three Lions.</p><p>Uzbekistan.</p><p>Bob Yakubov, an analyst and soccer scout near Kansas City, where England will be headquartered, created the figures.</p><p>It’s the final bit of minutiae punters might apply in their last-minute handicapping of the expanded 48-team tournament, which starts Thursday with South Africa facing Mexico in Mexico City.</p><p>The Three Lions play Croatia in Dallas (June 17), Ghana in Boston (June 23) and Panama in New Jersey (June 27).</p><p>They sport a 74.2 burden rating (out of 100), the Uzbeks 80. Curacao, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uruguay round out the top five.</p><p>Portugal, Japan, Croatia (third four years ago, second in 2018) and Austria are also among the top 10.</p><p>At the other end is Paraguay (0.0), which will call San Francisco home and play back-to-back matches at Levi’s Stadium. Above Paraguay are Mexico (0.3), South Korea (4.5) and the United States (12.7) at No. 45.</p><h3>Spanish vengeance</h3><p>On Sunday at DraftKings, England had the third-lowest odds, at +700 (or risk $100 to win $700), to win the ugly little golden glob. Spain and France (+475) were first and second, respectively.</p><p>I’m on record with Spain, World Cup victors in 2010 in South Africa and winners of three of the last five Euros, beating England in the final July 19.</p><p>The French have been fantastic, too, winning two of the last seven World Cups and placing in Qatar (2022) and Germany (2006). </p><p>However, it will likely play Germany in a round-of-16 match in Philadelphia, and Spain probably awaits in a semifinal in Foxborough, Massachusetts.</p><p>For England, 32-year-old striker Harry Kane keeps producing. This past season for Bayern Munich, he registered the best goals-plus-assists 90-minute rating (1.55) in Europe’s Big Five. Kane tilts that half of the bracket toward England.</p><p>By winning Group L, the Three Lions likely would avoid France and Germany. The Netherlands and Portugal shouldn’t bother England, but it will have a reckoning with Spain. England lost the Euro 24 finale to Spain 2-1 in Berlin.</p><h3>Beware ‘Kaabi’</h3><p>The 14th-easiest route, according to Yakubov, is Morocco, whose odds to win Group C are +390 at Circa Sports.</p><p>Several experts have called the Atlas Lions, who lost the third-place game to Croatia in Qatar, the minnows to watch.</p><p>Brazil (-310) is the Group C favorite, but the flair of Samba Soccer long has faded. Odds and prices are subject to change.</p><p>At Circa, Morocco is 60-1 to win it all. BetMGM has its odds to advance to the knockout stage at -1200. Also, it’s +350 to reach the quarterfinals, a doable route that might involve matches against Japan and Canada.</p><p>Ayoub El Kaabi is the 32-year-old Danger Man for Morocco. Known as ‘‘Kaabi,’’ his left-footed bicycle kicks are artful.</p><p>For dreamers, a Spain-Morocco final is 66-1 at BetMGM, England-Morocco 150-1 and Spain-Norway 50-1.</p><h3>Germany and Colombia</h3><p>WagerTalk’s Toronto-based soccer ace Carmine Bianco is sharp, having months ago picked Paris Saint-Germain to successfully defend its Champions League crown, which it did against Arsenal.</p><p>His last-minute World Cup gem is Germany to reach the quarterfinals, at +150. That would require a German disposal of France in the round of 32, up to a potential fateful quarterfinal against Spain.</p><p>Bianco’s dark-horse title candidate is Colombia, which he got at 40-1. He hopes to leverage it, should Los Cafeteros (The Coffee Growers) surprise a knockout foe or two.</p><p>As a probable runner-up to Portugal in Group K, however, that might be a tall order, with Croatia and Spain lurking in Colombia’s way.</p><h3>Aching lungs</h3><p>I don’t rate any of the three host nations, who are very fortunate that hosts didn’t have to qualify and that 32 squads (instead of 16) advance to the knockouts.</p><p>However, Mexico (-119 to win Group A at Circa) can trumpet significant home-side edges in altitude, heat and humidity, with two group matches in Mexico City and one in Guadalajara.</p><p>The lungs of Czechia, South Africa and South Korea will burn. Plus, winning its group means ‘‘El Tri’’ could play two knockout games in Mexico City.</p><p>Canada’s travel burden is 83.3 because it opens in Toronto and flies to Vancouver for two. The United States’ travel burden (L.A., Seattle, L.A.) is 37.7. Mexico’s is nil.</p><h3>Confounding Cristiano</h3><p>I concocted different group-winning parlay combinations involving Switzerland (-105), Germany (-330), the Netherlands (-130), France (-210), Spain (-450), Belgium (-250), England (-300), Portugal (-210) and Argentina (-300).</p><p>Those 20 investments were made at William Hill. At Circa Sports, I took a flier on Norway (50-1) and Erling Haaland to win it all, plus Spain (+445).</p><p>At Green Valley Ranch (GVR), I got insurance on France at +700. For long-shot group winners, I have Australia (+900 South Point, +700 GVR), Morocco (+500 GVR) and Japan (+340 GVR).</p><p>Also at Circa, I grabbed a 10-1 title ticket on Portugal and 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, who keeps confounding the football gods.</p><p>In his previous five national-team matches, he has scored five times. In four seasons for Al-Nassr in Saudi Arabia, in which he has made more than 200 million Euros annually, he has netted 102 goals in 107 matches. At DraftKings, he’s 25-1 to win the Golden Boot.</p><h3>Bullish on Mbappe</h3><p>For high school pal Paul Caligiuri, the U.S. Hall of Fame defender, I bought, at the Westgate SuperBook, a +700 ticket on French striker Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot, 18-1 on Spanish striker Lamine Yamal.</p><p>Four seasons ago, Yamal made his FC Barcelona debut at 15. This past season, he had 16 goals and 11 assists, becoming more of a threat. He turns 19 on July 13, and the Spaniards are 18-1-6 (losing only to Colombia in a 2024 friendly) with him.</p><p>He has six goals and 11 assists for La Roja. I passed because his national-team penchant has been to defer to peers Mikel Oyarzabal, Mikel Merino, Pedri and Ferran Torres.</p><h3>Drought over?</h3><p>In all competitions, 27-year-old U.S. striker Christian Pulisic had played 21 matches in a row without scoring until Sunday, when he scored in a 3-2 friendly triumph against Senegal. (The friendly Saturday against Germany was a truer gauge for the Americans.)</p><p>Pulisic last had scored Dec. 28, for AC Milan in a 3-0 victory against Hellas Verona. Milan is paying him nearly 100,000 Euros per week, a contract that expires in one year.</p><p>At the SuperBook, the United States (+140) has a slim Group D edge over Turkey (+180). Caligiuri is concerned about the U.S. defense at midfield and center-back, where he questions its depth.</p><p>He says that Juventus midfielder Weston McKennie is the most talented U.S. player, respected by every teammate, and that it’s imperative that he and Pulisic play off and complement each other.</p><p>‘‘Ideally, the U.S. creates three-player combinations around and inside the box,’’ Caligiuri says, ‘‘with Pulisic at the start and end of the sequence, burying [shots] into the back of the net.’’<br></p>",
  "title": "Of Kane, Kylian and Kaabi: Handicapping the World Cup",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-07T11:30:01.383Z"
}