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  "path": "/college-sports/2026/03/18/ncaa-tournament-bracket-tips-and-why-illinois-might-be-a-team-that-can-win-the-whole-thing",
  "publishedAt": "2026-03-18T13:00:00.000Z",
  "site": "https://chicago.suntimes.com",
  "textContent": "<p>Keep these \"Three Pointers\" in mind heading into the first round of the <a class=\"Link\" href=\"https://chicago.suntimes.com/college-sports\" target=\"_blank\" >men’s NCAA Tournament</a>, especially if you’re still scribbling out your bracket:</p><p><b>1. Metrics matter a lot</b></p><p>Almost without fail this century, the national champion has been a top 25 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency per the highly respected KenPom rankings, and recent ones — including Florida last year (2 offense, 6 defense) and UConn before that (1 and 4 in 2024, 3 and 7 in 2023) — were great at both. This year, no surprise, the No. 1 seeds lead the way: Duke (4, 2), Arizona (6, 3), Michigan (8, 1) and Florida (9, 6).</p><p>No. 2 seeds Houston (13, 5) and Iowa State (20, 4) also are on the right side of this trend. No. 3 seed Illinois (2, 28) comes close. No. 2 seed Purdue ranks first in offense but 36th in defense. Another No. 3, Michigan State, is really good at both ends — 24th in offense, 13th in defense — but not elite at either. Have we already exhausted the list of teams that can win the whole thing? Maybe.</p><div class=\"RelatedList Enhancement\" data-module data-align-center> <div class=\"RelatedList-title\">Related</div> <ul class=\"RelatedList-items\"> <li class=\"RelatedList-items-item\"> <a class=\"Link\" href=\"https://chicago.suntimes.com/college-sports/2026/03/15/my-ncaa-tournament-pick-arizona-wildcats-big-12-final-four-march-madness\" >My NCAA Tournament pick: Arizona will win it all in a Big 12-heavy Final Four</a> </li> <li class=\"RelatedList-items-item\"> <a class=\"Link\" href=\"https://chicago.suntimes.com/college-sports/2026/03/15/illinois-sweet-16-path-ncaa-tournament-illini-houston-cougars-march-madness\" >Illinois’ path to Sweet 16 is nice, but then? Trouble — real trouble</a> </li> <li class=\"RelatedList-items-item\"> <a class=\"Link\" href=\"https://chicago.suntimes.com/college-sports/2026/03/15/illinois-penn-illini-brad-underwood-fran-mccaffery-ncaa-tournament-march-madness\" target=\"_blank\" >Illinois a No. 3 seed in NCAA Tournament, will face No. 14 Penn on Thursday in South Carolina</a> </li> </ul> </div> <p><b>2. Upset trends</b></p><p>Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 9 seeds have a slightly better record than No. 8s, so don’t hesitate to go with the 9s. Impressively, teams seeded No. 10 have won nearly 40% of the time, and — believe it or not — No. 11 seeds have, too. More often than not, at least one No. 13 seed wins a game. And there’s always at least one double-digit seed in the Sweet 16.</p><p><b>3. Underdog watch</b></p><p>No. 10 seeds Texas A&M, Santa Clara and Missouri and No. 11 seeds USF, VCU and Texas are all catching fewer than five points. Take at least a few of them in your bracket. Heck, might as well take ’em all.</p>",
  "title": "NCAA Tournament bracket tips — and why Illinois might be a team that can win the whole thing",
  "updatedAt": "2026-03-18T13:00:02.738Z"
}