[OC] How a 2026 Middle East Energy Shock Could Affect Oil, Commodities, and Inflation

Data source and software: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026; scenario assumptions by Forensic Economic Services LLC. Created in R. This scenario analysis shows Brent crude rising from $86 to $115, with spillovers into fertilizers (+31%), energy/oil (+24%), and regional inflation. Not a prediction — just a stress-test scenario for commodity markets. by forensiceconomics