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  "path": "/2026/06/20260608-222214-links/",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-09T03:22:14.000Z",
  "site": "http://botwerks.net",
  "tags": [
    "Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued | Morningstar"
  ],
  "textContent": "Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued | Morningstar\n\nit’s not a long read. i’d love to see the research inputs.\n\n> How Do the Scenarios Add Up to the Fair Value Estimate?\n>\n>   * We give the optimistic Moonshot scenario a 7% chance of happening. This represents the combined probability that Starship is reusable 85% of the time and orbital data centers scale well commercially. This scenario would add $108 to our fair value estimate, unweighted, and it lifts the final result by $7.56 per share.\n>   * We assign the No Go scenario a 43% chance of happening, meaning even if Starship is successful, orbital AI data centers may not be, which would detract $6.20 from our fair value estimate on its own, and it weighs on the average by $2.67.\n>   * We deem the Minimum Viable Product scenario as most likely (though far from guaranteed). It is worth $23.50, adding $11.75 to the fair value weighted at 50% probability.\n>\n\n\ni rarely see/hear anyone tackle the space-based data center bits in anything resembling an adult conversation. the boosterism on this is mindblowing. this is a rare exception and still does a fair amount of investor-class handwaving.",
  "title": "morningstar on spacex ipo"
}