SPC MD 1041

MD 1041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 1041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...eastern Kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 090402Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A bowing cluster will continue east/southeastward with a risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes into the overnight hours. A new Watch will be issued downstream. DISCUSSION...An intense bowing complex over central KS with a history of significant wind damage is expected to continue east/southeastward this evening and overnight. Numerous reports of measured severe winds, damage, and observed radar velocities indicate this complex remains very strong. A large reservoir of buoyancy (MUCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) remains in place over eastern KS, weakening into western MO. This should maintain the threat for damaging gusts with these strong storms for a few more hours tonight. Strong low-level shear could also support a couple of QLCS tornadoes. Current CAM trends eventually show weakening later tonight as the complex is forecast to move into weaker buoyancy and increasing nocturnal inhibition along the KS/MO border. However, the strength of the cold pool and radar observed rear inflow jet suggest this will take several hours. A threat for damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes will likely continue for some time tonight. A Watch downstream from WW290 will be issued for portions of eastern KS and western MO in the next hour. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37109363 37019459 37429589 37829685 38179681 39139644 39449609 39429435 39219382 38759326 38299318 37489327 37109363 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more