SPC MD 1029

MD 1029 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...parts of southwestern into south central Nebraska and northwestern into north central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081849Z - 082145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, including a couple of evolving supercells, appears increasingly probable by 3-5 PM CDT. A severe weather watch is likely to be issued at some point, through timing remains a bit uncertain. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a subtle, weakening short wave perturbation, stronger warm advection (based around the 700 mb level) is focused along the western Nebraska/Kansas state border vicinity. This is near the northern periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air, and likely to persist into late afternoon, based on latest Rapid Refresh output. Associated forcing for ascent has been supporting thunderstorm development in an arcing band across the North Platte toward Imperial NE vicinities, but inflow of air emanating from a seasonably moist low-level environment to its southeast has not been sufficient to maintain particularly vigorous convection. Closer to the state border vicinity, moistening associated with a gradual veering of low-level flow from a general northeasterly to east-southeasterly component, coupled with continued insolation, appears likely to contribute to weakening inhibition for boundary-layer parcels increasingly characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. As this occurs, perhaps as early as 20-22Z, potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development may begin to more notably increase. Due to veering of winds with height, deep-layer mean flow is southerly and rather light, around 10-15 kts, so storms likely will be initially slow moving. But deep-layer shear appears more than sufficient for supercells, which should tend to propagate sharply to the right (southeastward) through late afternoon. These may be accompanied by potential for very large hail, perhaps some risk for a tornado, and locally strong downbursts, before activity tends to grow upscale. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40480001 40349910 39819833 39269894 39500024 40240075 40480001 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more