SPC MD 1023

MD 1023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 1023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 080533Z - 080730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scatted convection driven by warm advection could occasionally become severe and produce wind damage and, conditionally, a tornado. The need for a watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection has increased within the MO/KS/AR/OK region this evening. Widely scattered storms have developed in response to the low-level jet. The airmass is quite moist with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F. As such, MLCIN is fairly minimal. The moderate to strong low-level advection has increased SRH per regional VAD data. While conditional, the tornado threat is not zero. However, isolated wind damage is likely the primary hazard with these storms. Some guidance has suggested that enough storm development will occur that a cold pool could develop. Should this happen, a small MCS could track into more of Arkansas where greater buoyancy resides. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 35929565 36059650 36559674 37489623 37559468 37109357 36449318 35949325 35649394 35929565 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more