SPC MD 962

MD 0962 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270... FOR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 0962 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026 Areas affected...northern South Dakota to northeast North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270... Valid 022228Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 270 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will most likely be concentrated from north-central South Dakota to northeast North Dakota over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery from KMVX and KMBX shows semi-discrete cells continuing to grow upscale into loosely organized convective clusters across northeast ND as they migrate north/northeast along a surface front and a low-level confluence band. While these storm interactions appear to limiting the longevity of the severe threat for any particular storm, MRMS and GOES IR imagery continues to show transient, but intense, updraft pulses within these clusters. Further upstream, visible imagery shows steadily building cumulus and the early stages of sustained deep convection across north-central SD into south-central ND. Given a weakly capped thermodynamic environment and focsued low-level ascent, the chance for additional severe thunderstorms emerging from south-central to northeast ND appears to be increasing. Given southerly flow through much of the column and initiation along a meridionally-oriented boundary, some degree of clustering/upscale growth appears likely through the evening and may favor a severe wind threat. However, taken in isolation the wind profile sampled by the nearby KBIS VWP suggests that window may exist for a few semi-discrete supercells capable of large hail. Recent high-res guidance appears to support this idea and suggests the primary severe corridor will be downstream of this activity for the next few hours. ..Moore.. 06/02/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47470008 48999901 49009745 48869734 48439726 46269889 45839910 45409925 45239937 45149959 45159998 45200022 45330029 45720038 46440041 46940045 47190039 47470008 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more