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  "path": "/products/md/md0957.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-06-02T19:44:03.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov",
  "tags": [
    "Read more"
  ],
  "textContent": "MD 0957 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS\n\n\n\n\n    Mesoscale Discussion 0957\n    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n    1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026\n\n    Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains\n\n    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely\n\n    Valid 021749Z - 022015Z\n\n    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent\n\n    SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will bring a risk for\n    damaging wind gusts and large hail to portions of the southern High\n    Plains through this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.\n\n    DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts developing\n    thunderstorms along the higher-terrain areas of central/southeastern\n    New Mexico, with additional development expected farther south into\n    West Texas by early afternoon. Continued insolation amid moist\n    southeasterly, low-level flow is expected to support 1000 to locally\n    2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating this afternoon. RAP forecast\n    soundings suggest convection moving off of the high-terrain will\n    initially encounter increasingly deep boundary layers owing to\n    diurnal mixing, with latest guidance suggesting surface dewpoint\n    depressions may exceed 40 F by the mid-to-late afternoon. Weak\n    effective shear across the region (generally less than 20 kts per\n    latest mesoanalysis) and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will\n    promote efficient evaporative cooling and outflow-dominant storm\n    structure, with the potential for damaging wind gusts. Isolated\n    large hail may also accompany the most robust updrafts owing to\n    steep mid-level lapse rates.\n\n    Farther north across northeastern New Mexico, latest surface\n    analysis depicts a roughly west-east oriented outflow boundary\n    extending from the northern Texas Panhandle towards the high terrain\n    of north-central New Mexico, with two discrete supercells noted in\n    this region north of I-40 via recent radar imagery. Objective\n    analysis depicts a corridor of locally greater buoyancy (2000+ J/kg\n    MLCAPE) and marginally enhanced effective shear (25-35 kts) along\n    and south of this boundary. This is likely to favor area of locally\n    greater large hail potential through this afternoon. A brief\n    tornado/landspout also cannot be ruled out should a storm interact\n    with the greater low-level shear/surface vertical vorticity analyzed\n    along this boundary.\n\n    Given the expectation for storm organization and severe magnitude to\n    remain largely limited, watch issuance appears unlikely at this\n    time. Trends will continue to be monitored, however.\n\n    ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/02/2026\n\n    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...\n\n    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...\n\n    LAT...LON   35470552 36220521 36700488 36920437 36930386 36850337\n                36580308 36170292 35500285 34370284 32460291 31690300\n                30910309 29800341 29390368 29190391 29240418 29400442\n                29710472 30070488 30410505 30630521 30750547 31100578\n                31470607 32960599 33580589 35470552\n\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN\n\n\n\nRead more",
  "title": "SPC MD 957"
}