SPC MD 833

MD 0833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0833 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026 Areas affected...parts of southwestern into south central Oklahoma through central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 230456Z - 230730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong lingering storms may be slow to undergo substantive further weakening, and could continue to pose a risk for localized strong to severe gusts and some hail through 1-3 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Near the leading edge of a broad and otherwise weakening eastward propagating, convectively generated surface cold pool, a narrow corridor of 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises has developed as vigorous convective development persists. This is being aided by continuing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, as lift remains sufficient to overcome increasing inhibition with surface cooling. How long this persists remains unclear. Mid/upper support does not appear particularly strong, and vertical shear is generally weak, in the presence of 10-15 kt westerly deep-layer mean wind fields. However, given the current strength of the ongoing convective development, and the potential instability present ahead of activity across and east of the I-35 corridor, storms may be slow to undergo substantive further weakening as it slowly develops eastward through 06-08Z. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX... LAT...LON 30869831 31569847 31689860 32589806 33389811 33909806 34189847 34479870 34939854 35029781 34499666 31439710 30869831 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more