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  "path": "/products/md/md0827.html",
  "publishedAt": "2026-05-22T20:45:03.000Z",
  "site": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov",
  "tags": [
    "Read more"
  ],
  "textContent": "MD 0827 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA\n\n\n\n\n    Mesoscale Discussion 0827\n    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK\n    0309 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026\n\n    Areas affected...portions of West Texas...the Texas Panhandle and\n    far southwestern Oklahoma\n\n    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible\n\n    Valid 222009Z - 222215Z\n\n    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent\n\n    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is likely over the next several\n    hours across portions of far eastern NM and West TX. A mix of multi\n    cells and transient supercells may pose a risk for damaging winds\n    and hail. A WW is possible.\n\n    DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, regional visible imagery showed a\n    building cumulus field across portions of far eastern NM, West TX\n    and the southern TX Panhandle. Towers within this cu field have\n    steadily deepened  indicating erosion of remaining inhibition\n    shortly. Amid strong diurnal heating and weak ascent from a\n    subtropical disturbance aloft, area RAP and Observed AMA soundings\n    show surface temperatures now warming into the upper 80s to low 90s\n    F, which will exceed convective temperature in the next couple of\n    hours. This should support scattered thunderstorm development this\n    afternoon.\n\n    While a gradient in surface dewpoints is evident in area obs, steep\n    low and mid-level lapse rates are supporting sufficient buoyancy\n    (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) for strong updrafts. Deep-layer shear is\n    not overly large, generally 20-30 kt. This suggests a mixed mode of\n    multi cell clusters and transient supercells. Hail will be possible\n    with the stronger storms. Numerous storm interactions and the modest\n    low-level moisture favoring stronger downdrafts and cold pool\n    development should also result in fairly rapid upscale growth into\n    one or more clusters or an MCS. Thus, the risk for damaging winds is\n    also possible, and expected to increase with time.\n\n    Current expectations are for storms to develop withing the warmer\n    and more well-mixed air mass over West TX and the southern Panhandle\n    before expanding in coverage farther east. Additional CI remains\n    possible along the southward moving cold front farther north.\n    However, this has become less certain in recent CAM runs. The severe\n    risk should gradually increase this afternoon and evening with a WW\n    possible in the next couple of hours.\n\n    ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/22/2026\n\n    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...\n\n    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...\n\n    LAT...LON   33170221 34080303 35660128 35729976 34819947 34439941\n                33169947 32609951 31539963 31160007 30890080 30800162\n                31080186 31530183 32640199 33170221\n\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH\n    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN\n\n\n\nRead more",
  "title": "SPC MD 827"
}