SPC MD 758

MD 0758 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0758 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...extreme eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma into south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 172219Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated supercells are possible later this afternoon and into the early evening. The conditional risk of very large damaging hail is high, along with a risk of a couple tornadoes. The area is being monitored for initial deep convection. DISCUSSION...High based convection currently exists within the low-level lapse rates plume west of the dryline from the TX Panhandle into far southwest KS where temperatures have reached 100 F. Meanwhile, mid 90s F extend into much of northwest OK, where little convective inhibition remains. Low-level moisture is in the process of increasing from the southeast. GPS PWAT values around 1.25" are moving across central OK, while values near 1.60" are noted near the Red River. This suggests higher-quality boundary layer moisture will eventually spread northwestward into the strongly heated zone from the TX Panhandle into northwest OK later this afternoon into the early evening. Modified 18Z OUN sounding indicates low to mid 90s F temperatures are needed to remove inhibition. This will become more likely as the moisture spreads northwestward. Steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.0 C/km along with about 40 kt deep-layer shear oriented west-east across the dryline suggest supercells with very large hail potential will be possible. A tornado, even strong, cannot be ruled out with any longer tracked supercell. ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35080050 37289965 37879947 38379918 38419879 38259828 37589777 37099758 36739758 36469772 36229829 35929900 35179961 34860000 34930048 35080050 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more