SPC MD 742

MD 0742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...far southeast Nebraska toward far northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211... Valid 170136Z - 170330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 continues. SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as cells interact with the wind shift/outflow. DISCUSSION...Several cells are currently ongoing from Washington County KS to just south of Lincoln, NE, and these are within the instability axis where MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg. Surface analysis also shows an outflow boundary just north of these cells and extending into northwest MO, with a more subtle wind shift with northeast winds from just northwest of these cells into northern KS. Area VWPs show the increasing low-level jet with around 35 kt out of the south at Topeka. Given the increased shear with effective SRH now over 200 m2/s2, a brief period in time and space may exist for a brief tornado before these cells are undercut by the outflow. ..Jewell.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40069787 40469718 40769678 40729615 40369608 39949640 39739717 39749761 39929787 40069787 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more