SPC MD 740

MD 0740 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 210... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI Mesoscale Discussion 0740 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 210... Valid 162346Z - 170115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 210 continues. SUMMARY...Severe storms should continue to pose a threat for severe wind/hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes (over northern MO) over at least the next few hours. Hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter remains possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of 2+ inch hail continue to progress east-southeastward along a quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary over southern IA into northern MO. Along the moist side of the boundary, 68 F surface dewpoints are contributing to over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, and given a well-mixed boundary layer with minimal MLCINH, supercell structures should persist with a severe hail/wind threat. Low-level shear seems weak overall, which may be why tornado potential has not proven robust (with only one brief tornado reported in IA). Questions also remain regarding how much more 2+ inch diameter hail will occur given an increase in frequent storm interactions. Nonetheless, given ample instability in place, any supercell structures that can remain discrete and/or dominant will continue to pose a severe wind/hail risk, and 2+ inch diameter hail or a couple of tornadoes are possible. The best chance for significant severe hail and/or tornadoes will exist with supercells over northern MO, which are dominant, discrete, and are in closer proximity to the most unstable airmass. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 41209519 41159391 41069341 40859296 40559257 40019233 39769265 39689309 39709353 40009414 40399473 40679508 40939530 41209519 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more