SPC MD 717

MD 0717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 0717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Areas affected...northern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132351Z - 140145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Conditional threat for severe wind and large hail this evening. DISCUSSION...Cumulus continues to deepen across portions the northern Texas Panhandle near Amarillo, with a few attempts noted further south east of I-27 near Cap Rock. This is occurring along a boundary of increasing moisture moving northward from western Oklahoma into the TX/OK Panhandles. Overall, forcing for ascent is weak aside from the this weak boundary leading to low confidence in thunderstorm development. Given a storm, the very warm and well mixed boundary layer and steep low to mid-level lapse rates would be conducive to instances of large hail and severe gusts. This threat remains too conditional and isolated for watch issuance but trends will be monitored. ..Thornton/Smith.. 05/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36220170 36070189 35730214 35240219 34940211 34780190 34670161 34640087 34710051 34890015 35360005 35680012 35880019 36120037 36240075 36320117 36220170 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more