SPC MD 714

MD 0714 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199... FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA Mesoscale Discussion 0714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Areas affected...Parts of north-central Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199... Valid 132137Z - 132300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199 continues. SUMMARY...A locally enhanced corridor of significant-gust (75+ mph) potential is evident over parts of north-central Montana in WW199. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KFTX shows a few deeper cores evolving along/immediately atop a consolidating cold pool surging north-northeastward into north-central MT -- immediately northeast of Great Falls. This activity has produced several severe gusts upwards of 60 mph thus far. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear orthogonal to the strengthening cold pool and forcing for ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should maintain this convective band and related cold pool with northeastward extent. The pre-convective environment -- characterized by a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer (around 50 deg F T/Td spreads) -- will aid in robust convective momentum transport and the potential for a swath of severe gusts (some upwards of 80 mph). This potential for significant-severe gusts continues to be advertised by the latest high-resolution guidance including WOFs runs -- which has shown gusts to near 90 mph. However, given convective trends up to this point, gusts of this magnitude remain uncertain. ..Weinman.. 05/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46920980 47261023 47611079 47841159 47951161 48301132 48761063 48951011 48950936 48670873 48160844 47600867 46950943 46920980 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more