SPC MD 711

MD 0711 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST PA...SOUTHEAST OH...AND PARTS OF WV Mesoscale Discussion 0711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Areas affected...southwest PA...southeast OH...and parts of WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131641Z - 131915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and hail are possible this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing near and just ahead of a surface cold front from far western NY into eastern OH. Pockets of stronger heating have occurred ahead of this activity across southwest PA into OH and parts of WV where some clearing has occurred in the wake of early day cloudiness and showers. This has allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 60s amid 50s dewpoints. While boundary layer moisture will remain modest, cold temperatures aloft will support steepened midlevel lapse rates. As a result, modest destabilization is underway within a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Instability is likely to remain modest, with generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE expected by peak heating. While upper level flow will be moderate, low-level flow is expected to be somewhat less compared to further north closer to the surface low. In fact, forecast guidance indicates 850 mb flow will weaken through the day. Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes will be sufficient for some organized storm structures. However, limited instability and modest boundary layer moisture will likely preclude more substantial severe potential. Locally strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest cells, but overall severe is expected to remain sparse, negating watch issuance at this time. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 41228031 41027968 40987875 40837840 40407835 39927858 39127936 38598013 38218092 38078132 38158182 38348209 38658226 39038215 40188139 41228031 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more