SPC MD 704

MD 0704 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS Mesoscale Discussion 0704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of the coastal Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111643Z - 111845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across the coastal Carolinas. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is ongoing ahead of a weak surface low analyzed east of Florence, SC, with additional agitated cumulus noted on the seaward side of the coastal sea breeze across portions of the Crystal Coast southward to near Charleston, SC. While mid-level lapse rates remain poor (as sampled by the 12z MHX/CHS observed soundings), continued diurnal heating amid ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70 F) is aiding in weak destabilization, with latest mesoanalysis and forecast soundings depicting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Expectation is for convection to gradually increase in coverage along the sea breeze and ahead of the approaching front as lingering inhibition continues to erode. Strong westerly flow aloft downstream of an approaching upper-level trough is supporting 35-45+ kts of effective bulk shear, which is sufficient to promote updraft organization into multicells and perhaps marginal supercell structures. Some potential for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will accompany more robust updrafts, with the greatest potential expected on the coastal side of the sea breeze where greater low-level moisture may favor locally stronger buoyancy. The given the expectation for the severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch issuance is not expected at this time. ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 32547991 32628014 32998026 33567976 34247880 34837748 35207647 35357567 35297544 35137541 35007568 34797613 34497645 34537687 34357737 34007770 33757783 33677849 33477885 33147908 32807938 32677963 32547991 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more