SPC MD 699

MD 0699 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Texas into southwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102301Z - 110030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be possible for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations show a west/east-oriented low-level confluence zone extending from southeast TX into southwestern LA -- where a few thunderstorms are attempting to strengthen. The earlier 18Z LCH sounding sampled steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist PBL -- contributing to around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy and an elongated mid/upper-level hodograph/strong venting aloft -- evident by eastward expanding anvils on visible satellite imagery -- will conditionally support a couple organized storms including supercell structures. Any storms that can mature/intensify will pose a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts for the next few hours. However, current thinking is that many of these storms will struggle to mature owing to midlevel dry air entertainment and overall weak forcing for ascent. A watch is not expected for this activity in the near term, though severe storms to the northwest may eventually move into parts of southeast TX tonight -- and this will be addressed as needed. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29869408 29739516 29669609 29889652 30299663 30709646 30919614 31009552 31039435 30939321 30789254 30519190 30349169 30129164 29899191 29819245 29869408 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more