SPC MD 696

MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY Mesoscale Discussion 0696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101954Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating amid lingering cloud cover is contributing to modest air mass modification across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of overnight convection, with latest mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE has increased to 1250-2000 J/kg across the region. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is ongoing within this air mass along several surface boundaries. While low-level flow remains meager (per the LZK VWP), modest westerly flow aloft is supporting effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts. This will be sufficient to support a mix of multicells and marginal supercell structures through the afternoon. Modestly steep low-level lapse rates (greater than 7 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) may foster an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail may also be possible with more robust updrafts despite generally poor mid-level lapse rates. Given the expectation for the severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch issuance is unlikely. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33749274 34059308 34629347 35259358 35669352 35979330 36029287 35949162 35629044 35128973 34628915 34168911 33678930 33328974 33229043 33379135 33749274 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more