SPC MD 694

MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101824Z - 102000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An ongoing thunderstorm cluster may persist southeastward over the next couple of hours, with the potential for eventual intensification. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...A persistent convective cluster is ongoing across portions of northeastern Texas, with latest high-res guidance continuing to struggle to capture this activity. Latest surface/mesoanalysis suggests that the environment immediately downstream of this cluster is located within the remnant outflow of overnight convection and possesses some residual inhibition (evident on 18z SHV observed sounding). Thus, one plausible scenario is a gradual weakening/dissipation of this cluster, with a weakening trend and surging outflow noted along the southern flank via recent radar imagery. A small convective segment with a stronger core is noted along the eastern edge of this cluster, however. This segment is in closer proximity to the leading edge of the surface cold pool and more favorably aligned with westerly deep-layer flow/shear. With continued diurnal heating modifying the downstream air mass, there is some potential for this cluster to persist and perhaps intensify east-southeastward over the next couple of hours. In this scenario, an increase in the threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps large hail with any stronger, embedded cores would be possible. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for a portion of the area should it appear likely that this cluster will continue to persist. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33289593 33339517 33369392 33269340 33109317 32819289 32419284 31959304 31689374 31609435 31639517 31749596 31909654 32349699 32669693 32979659 33239598 33289593 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more