SPC MD 688

MD 0688 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK...AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA Mesoscale Discussion 0688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...northern Ohio...western New York...and far northwest Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092036Z - 092200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts possible this afternoon and into the evening across parts of the eastern Great Lakes. DISCUSSION...A line of storms which first developed across eastern Michigan along a cold front continues east this afternoon. As these storms move off of Lake Erie/Ontario later this afternoon and into the evening, some damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly from far northeast Ohio into western New York. Instability is weak due to limited moisture but low-level lapse rates are steep and mid-level temperatures are cold. This may be sufficient to mix down some of the stronger (40 to 50 knot) mid-level flow between 3 and 4 km (sampled by the CLE/IWX/DTX/BUF VWPs). Some uncertainties remain given the cool Lake Erie/Ontario water temperatures and the aforementioned weak instability. Therefore, watch probabilities remain 40% for now and trends will be monitored. If storm intensity remains consistent as the storms approach this well-mixed airmass, a severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41208395 41278428 41748376 42658216 43338130 43538032 43477915 43417803 42917810 42297831 41927864 41597932 41208045 41048136 41048246 41088320 41208395 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more