SPC MD 682

MD 0682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA Mesoscale Discussion 0682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091711Z - 091915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...At least some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts may persist into the afternoon from the central Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a convectively reinforced surface front extending from near the Georgia coastline west-southwestward to offshore of the Emerald Coast of Florida. South of this surface boundary temperatures in the mid/upper-70s to low-80s F and dewpoints in the low/mid-70s will support around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by early this afternoon despite poor mid-level lapse rates (per latest mesoanalysis and the 12z JAX observed sounding). Strong effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kts will be sufficient to support organization of stronger updrafts, and PWATs of 1.75-1.90" across the region may support the potential for heavier water loading and isolated damaging wind gusts with any stronger cores over the next few hours, especially along and south of the aforementioned surface boundary. Trends will continue to be monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time owing to the marginal thermodynamic environment and the expectation for any severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30148595 30168595 30348579 30408535 30508459 30578400 30748321 31038268 31308218 31468193 31448167 31228144 31018138 30628132 30258121 29888128 29718162 29578228 29508272 29458317 29438343 29688361 29888377 29958403 29918425 29738452 29618474 29528500 29608539 29948567 30148595 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more